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Financial Services Law Insights and Observations

Agencies release stress-test scenarios

Bank Regulatory Federal Issues Federal Reserve FDIC OCC Stress Test Dodd-Frank

Recently, the FDIC, Fed, and OCC released the hypothetical economic scenarios for use in the upcoming stress tests for covered institutions. The FDIC released supervisory scenarios, which include baseline and severely adverse scenarios. According to the FDIC, “[t]he baseline scenario is in line with a survey of private sector economic forecasters” while the “severely adverse scenario” is a “hypothetical scenario designed to assess the strength and resilience of financial institutions.” Likewise, the Fed released the results of its supervisory Dodd-Frank bank stress tests conducted on 34 large banks, which collectively hold 70 percent of bank assets in the U.S. The two scenarios, baseline and severely adverse, include 28 variables, such as GDP, unemployment rate, stock market prices, and mortgage rate. In the 2022 stress test scenario, the U.S. unemployment rate rises nearly 6 points to a peak of 10 percent over two years. The large increase in the unemployment rate is accompanied by a 40 percent decrease in commercial real estate prices, broadening corporate bond spreads, and a collapse in asset prices, including increased market volatility. The OCC also released the agency’s scenarios for banks and savings associations currently subject to Dodd-Frank stress tests.