OCC’s Hsu discusses managing tail risks

Bank Regulatory Federal Issues OCC Risk Management Russia Ukraine Ukraine Invasion Digital Assets Cryptocurrency Of Interest to Non-US Persons

On March 31, acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu spoke before the American Bankers Association Risk 2022 Conference to discuss managing low probability, high impact risk events, or tail risks. In particular, Hsu highlighted the connection between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and heightened tail risks associated with geopolitical risk, cyber risk, and inflation risk. Hsu warned that multiple possible events stemming from the conflict, including cyber-attacks from Russia, broader conflict in Europe, and increased inflation could materialize simultaneously increasing the chances that tail risks materialize that could trigger a recession. Hsu noted that the increase of sanctions to oil and gas would put upward pressure on fuel prices, and “Ukraine’s role as a producer of wheat, neon, platinum, and palladium is also beginning to affect global prices in certain markets.” Despite the elevated risks, Hsu noted that enhanced stress testing has positioned large banks to absorb a range of shocks, but warned that “nonetheless, greater caution and risk management vigilance is warranted today, perhaps more than any time in recent memory.” Hsu also singled out risks associated with crypto assets and said that the OCC is collaborating with other agencies on “how to maintain a consistent, careful and cautious” approach to bank involvement in cryptocurrency. Hsu cautioned that in light of “limited or unreliable price histories” of crypto-assets, financial institutions should “carefully consider” the tail risks associated with factoring cryptocurrency positions into the overall risk management process. Hsu discussed his worry regarding the potential for crypto derivatives to create “wrong-way risk” in which a leveraged party use trades to “double-down” at the same time it is experiencing financial stress. Hsu stated that the OCC has engaged with government agencies in the U.K. and U.S. on “how to maintain a consistent, careful, and cautious approach to bank involvement in crypto.”