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Federal Banking Regulators Launch Next Round of Stress Testing
On November 15, the Federal Reserve Board, the OCC, and the FDIC released the macroeconomic and financial market scenarios to be used in annual stress tests conducted by covered institutions pursuant to rules the regulators finalized last month. The economic scenarios are the same for each regulator and their covered institutions and include baseline, adverse, and severely adverse scenarios with variables that reflect, among other things, economic activity, unemployment, exchange rates, prices, incomes, and interest rates. The baseline scenario represents expectations of private-sector forecasters, while the adverse and severely adverse scenarios present hypothetical conditions designed to assess the strength and resilience of financial institutions, as well as their ability to continue to meet the credit needs of households and businesses in stressful economic and financial environments. The Federal Reserve Board also published a proposed policy statement and the OCC issued interim guidance to describe how those agencies will develop and distribute stress test scenarios in future years. Comments are due on the Federal Reserve Board policy statement by February 15, 2013, and on the OCC interim guidance within 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. Finally, last week, the Federal Reserve Board issued instructions and guidelines for covered institutions, including timelines for submissions. In a shift from prior years, the Federal Reserve Board will provide covered firms an opportunity to adjust planned capital distributions based on the stress test results before the Federal Reserve Board makes a final decision on their capital adequacy.
OCC Provides Stress Test Guidance for Community Banks
On October 18, the OCC issued Bulletin OCC 2012-33, which provides guidance to community banks with assets of $10 billion or less on how to implement stress testing to assess risk in their loan portfolios. Stress tests are exercises designed to gauge the potentially adverse impact that a hypothetical scenario might have on earnings, loan loss reserves, and capital levels. The OCC reiterated that stress testing procedures for smaller community banks do not need to be as sophisticated as those used by larger national banks, but noted that all banks are expected to assess their capital adequacy in relation to overall risks and to have a plan for maintaining appropriate capital levels. The bulletin also included explanations of specific types of stress testing, a sample method for performing stress tests on a basic portfolio, and a table of common real estate characteristics that should be considered when evaluating the impact of a stress event on specific property types. Additionally, the OCC announced the availability of a new tool for performing stress tests on income-producing commercial real estate loan portfolios. The OCC plans to host a teleconference for bankers on December 3, 2012 to discuss this new guidance.
Federal Regulators Finalize Bank Stress Test Rules
On October 9, the OCC and the FDIC each finalized a rule to implement the company-run stress test requirements of the Dodd-Frank Act. The stress tests are exercises designed to gauge the losses that covered institutions might experience under hypothetical scenarios established by the regulators. The OCC and FDIC rules apply to covered institutions with average total consolidated assets greater than $10 billion. Covered institutions with assets over $50 billion are subject to the stress test requirements immediately. They will be required to submit results in January 2013 of stress tests based on data as of September 30, 2012 and scenarios that the FDIC and the OCC plan to publish next month. Implementation of the stress test requirements for institutions with assets of $10 billion to $50 billion will not begin until October 2013. Also on October 9, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) finalized two stress test-related rules. The first rule establishes the stress test requirements for bank holding companies, state member banks, and savings and loan companies with more than $10 billion in total consolidated assets. As with the OCC and FDIC rules, the FRB rule delays implementation of stress test requirements for covered institutions with $50 billion or less in assets until the fall of 2013. Additionally, the results of that first test will not have to be publicly disclosed. The second FRB rule establishes the company-run stress test requirements for bank holding companies with $50 billion or more in total consolidated assets, and nonbank financial companies designated as systemically important by the Financial Stability Oversight Council. These institutions are required to conduct two internal stress tests each year, in addition to a stress test performed by the FRB. Like the OCC and the FDIC, the FRB expects to release its stress test scenarios in November.
OCC Proposes Stress Test Reporting Requirements for Large Banks
On August 16, the OCC published a notice that describes the reports and information the OCC proposes to collect to implement the Dodd-Frank Act’s annual stress tests for banks with consolidated assets of $50 billion or more. The information that the OCC proposes to collect includes documentation regarding income statements, balance sheets, capital statements, retail projections, securities, trading risk, counterparty credit risk, operational risk, and pre-provision net revenue. The OCC proposed rules to implement the stress tests earlier this year. A separate notice regarding reports for institutions with consolidated assets between $10 billion and $50 billion will be published at a later date. The OCC is accepting comments on the instant notice through October 15, 2012.
FSOC and OFR Publish Annual Reports
This week, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) and the Office of Financial Research (OFR) each published annual reports to Congress, as mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act. This is the first such report the OFR has prepared. The FSOC annual report surveys the macroeconomic environment within which the U.S. economy exists, identifies risks to U.S. financial stability, reports on implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act and activities of FSOC, and provides a series of recommendations for policymakers. The FSOC’s recommendations fall into four categories: (i) reforms to address structural vulnerabilities, (ii) heightened risk management and supervisory attention, (iii) housing finance reforms, and (iv) implementation and coordination of financial reform. Within the housing finance category, the FSOC notes recent efforts to encourage private capital to re-enter the market in the near term but stresses the continued need for long-term housing finance reform. This section also reviews federal efforts to alter mortgage servicing standards and recommends that federal agencies finalize comprehensive servicing standards. The OFR report summarizes the OFR’s efforts to (i) analyze threats to financial stability, (ii) conduct research on financial stability, (iii) address data gaps, and (iv) promote data standards. According to the report, over the next year, the OFR will focus on the migration of financial activities into the so-called shadow banking system, and will continue to build on research related to threats to financial stability, stress tests, and risk management.
Federal Prudential Regulators Issue Final Stress Test Guidance
On May 14, the Federal Reserve Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation issued guidance on stress tests for banks with more than $10 billion in total consolidated assets. The final guidance provides, in a manner largely consistent with the proposed guidance, principles for banks to follow when conducting stress tests, including: (i) a stress testing framework, (ii) general stress testing principles, (iii) stress testing approaches and applications, (iv) the importance of stress testing in assessing the adequacy of capital and liquidity, and (v) the need for internal governance and controls over the stress testing framework. The regulators amended the final guidance to clarify certain issues raised during the comment period, including changes to (i) incorporate an additional principle for stress testing, (ii) clarify application of the guidance to U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banking organizations, (iii) clarify the role of a bank’s liabilities and operational risk in conducting a stress test, (iv) explain that senior management should have the primary responsibility for stress testing implementation and technical design, and (v) clarify that a banking organization’s minimum annual review and assessment should ensure that stress testing coverage is comprehensive, tests are relevant and current, methodologies are sound, and results are properly considered. In a separate announcement, the banking regulators explicitly addressed concerns raised by community bankers by explaining that community banks are neither required nor expected to conduct the stress tests described above. However, the statement stresses that all banking organizations, regardless of size, should have the capacity to analyze the potential impact of adverse outcomes on their financial condition.
FRB Releases Results of Stress Tests on Large Bank Holding Companies
On March 12 and 13, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) announced the methodology and results of stress tests it conducted on nineteen large U.S. bank holding companies as part of its 2012 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). Through the CCAR, the FRB is evaluating the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of the largest U.S. bank holding companies. One element of this evaluation is a supervisory stress test to evaluate whether firms would have sufficient capital to continue lending in a severely adverse economic environment. The CCAR stress test scenario assumes a severe recession in the U.S. with a peak unemployment rate of 13%, a 50% decrease in U.S. equity prices, and a 20% decline in U.S. house prices. The results, which are based on input from the holding companies, project (i) $534 billion of aggregate losses for the nineteen holding companies tested during the nine quarters of the scenario and (ii) that most of the holding companies will maintain regulatory capital ratios above regulatory minimum levels despite significant declines in capital ratios. The FRB emphasized that the results are not “expected or likely outcomes, but rather possible results under hypothetical, highly adverse conditions.” The FRB stated in its March 13 release that it would notify each bank holding company of any objections it has to the holding company’s current capital plan or planned capital distributions.
OCC Publishes Proposed Stress Test Rule
On January 24, the OCC published a proposed rule to implement annual capital-adequacy stress tests for national banks and federal savings associations with total consolidated assets of more than $10 billion. The rule is substantially similar to a recent FDIC stress test proposal for FDIC-insured state nonmember banks and state-chartered savings associations. (See InfoBytes, January 20, 2012). The Dodd-Frank Act requires these stress tests to aid regulators in assessing risk presented by an institution's capitalization and help ensure the institution’s financial stability. Under the proposal, the OCC would annually provide covered institutions with at least three sets of conditions - baseline, adverse, and severely adverse - that must be used in conducting an annual stress test. The tests would include calculations showing, for each quarter-end within a defined planning horizon, (i) estimates of revenues, (ii) potential losses, (iii) loan loss provisions, and (iv) potential impact on regulatory capital levels and ratios. Covered institutions also would be required to establish an oversight and documentation system to ensure that stress testing procedures are effective. Stress test results would have to be submitted to the OCC and the Federal Reserve Board by January 5 of each year, and a summary would have to be released to the public within ninety days thereafter. The OCC would plan to provide covered institutions with the scenarios at least two months before the January 5 deadline. The OCC is accepting public comment on the rule through March 26, 2012.
FDIC Approves Proposal for Large Bank Stress Testing
On January 17, the FDIC approved a proposed rule to implement annual capital-adequacy stress tests for FDIC-insured state nonmember banks and state-chartered savings associations with over $10 billion of total consolidated assets. As of September 30, 2011, there were twenty-three such institutions. Required by the Dodd-Frank Act, the stress tests would assist the FDIC in assessing risk presented by an institution’s capitalization and help ensure the bank’s financial stability. Under the proposal, the FDIC would annually provide covered banks with at least three sets of conditions – baseline, adverse, and severely adverse – that must be used in conducting an annual stress test. The tests would include calculations, for each quarter-end within a defined planning horizon, of the impact on the covered bank’s (i) potential losses, (ii) pre-provision revenues, (iii) loan loss reserves, and (iv) pro forma capital positions, including the impact on capital levels and ratios. Covered banks also would be required to establish an oversight and documentation system to ensure that stress testing procedures are effective. Following a test, a covered bank would be required to submit the results to the FDIC and later release a summary to the public. Under the proposed timeline, each year (i) the FDIC would provide scenarios no later than mid-November, (ii) covered banks would submit their stress test reports by January 5, and (iii) by early April covered banks would publicly release a summary of results. Public comments on the rule will be accepted sixty days following publication of the rule in the Federal Register.